Global, regional, and national burdens of cervical spinal cord injury in adolescents and young adults (aged 10–24 years) from 1990 to 2021: a trend analysis and predictions to 2050

BackgroundCervical spinal cord injury (CSCI) leads to lifelong disability, increased medical complications, and higher healthcare utilization. We aim to assess the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) due to CSCI among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) aged 10-24 years across all countries and analyze changes in these measures from 1990 to 2021 and estimate the proportions of CSCI cases resulting from various injury types.MethodIncidence, prevalence, and YLDs of CSCI among AYAs aged 10–24 years from 1990 to 2021 were sourced from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated to demonstrate temporal variations in the age-standardized rate (ASR). Additionally, these global trends were examined based on age, sex, and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI). To assess disparities in the burden of CSCI, we utilized the slope index of inequality (SII) and the relative concentration index (RCI). Furthermore, we analyzed the contributions of risk factors to the incidence, prevalence, and years YLDs across 26 regions in 2021. The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model was applied to analyze trends across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts, and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was utilized for forecasting future epidemiological trends from 2022 to 2050.ResultsIn 2021, there were an estimated 0.05 million incidence cases, 0.77million prevalence case and 0.33 million of YLDs, respectively. The global burden of CSCI significantly decreased compared to 1990 (AAPC: -1.06; 95% CI: -1.27 to -0.84) vs (-1.18; 95%CI: -1.28 to -1.08) vs (-1.3; 95% CI:-1.41 to -1.19). Across all age groups, males had higher prevalence, incidence and YLDs rates. Meanwhile, in the 20–24 age group had higher ASR of incidence, prevalence and YLDs than 15-19 and 10-14 age group. Regions with higher SDI tended to have higher ASIR, ASPR and ASYR than lower SDI regions. Furthermore, falls were identified as the primary cause of CSCI. The projected prevalence, incidence, and YLD rates of CSCI from 2021 to 2050 demonstrate an initial decline followed by an increase, with 2021 serving as the turning point for both incidence and prevalence.ConclusionsCSCI in AYAs is a major public health challenge, with significant disparities in incidence, prevalence, and YLDs across regions and countries. The leading causes of CSCI globally were falls. Addressing this concerning trend among AYAs requires improved healthcare responsiveness and vigilant epidemiological monitoring.