Climate-driven shifts in the distribution of economically and ecologically important Paulownia species in China: Implications for sustainable cultivation

Paulownia , valued as fast-growing timber crops in China, underpins a multi-billion-dollar industry through the production of high-quality wood for furniture and musical instruments, as well as the provision of ecological services. However, the sustainability of Paulownia wood, the primary raw material for this industrial chain, is increasingly threatened by climate change. To project future habitat suitability for three key commercial species of Paulownia — P . elongata , P . fortunei , and P . tomentosa —An optimized MaxEnt model was employed based on CMIP6 climate projections. Results indicate that: (i) highly suitable areas are currently concentrated in central China, aligning with existing cultivation hubs; (ii) by the 2070 s under SSP5–8.5, all three species reached their maximum potential habitat area, expanding to 66.64, 63.03, and 62.57 million hectares (Mha), respectively; and (iii) a pronounced northward shift of distribution centroids was observed under both scenarios, indicating significant spatial reorganization. This study provides a scientific basis for climate-resilient cultivation zoning, sustainable resource management, and strategic planning to secure the future of the Paulownia -based industry under climate change. • Optimized MaxEnt models project climate-driven habitat shifts for three key Paulownia species in China under CMIP6 scenarios. • Potentia suitable habitats of three Paulownia species may expand by ≥ 62 million hectares by 2070 s under high-emission scenario (SSP5–8.5). • Northward shift of distribution centroids signals major spatial reorganization of cultivation potential. • Temperature seasonality identified as primary driver of future habitat divergence through MESS/MoD analysis.