Spatiotemporal evolution, driving factors, and future projections of China’s multiple environmental footprints under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Recent decades have experienced swift economic growth in China, resulting ecological and environmental challenges of variable severity. However, understanding long-term trends in environmental footprints at the province level from both historical and prospective viewpoints continue to pose a challenge. This study examines three environmental footprint indicators (ecological-carbon-water footprints) across 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020, employing the fixed effects-based STIRPAT model and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework to investigate their driving forces and forecast long-term trajectories. The findings reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in environmental footprints, with the eastern coastal regions exhibiting markedly elevated values compared to other areas. Meanwhile, ecological and carbon footprints exhibited the most rapid expansion in the western regions, leading to a westward shift in their spatial center of gravity. This is primarily owing to the increase in environmental footprints in underdeveloped regions, driven by demographic and economic growth, although technological advancements have partially mitigated this trend. Moreover, the eastern coastal regions are under significant environmental pressure, and a declining coupling coordination degree between the environmental and economic systems may further exacerbate this pressure in the near term. Scenario analysis indicates that SSP1 represents the most effective pathway, achieving a reduction of roughly 25.2% to 77.1% in environmental footprints by year 2100. • Temporal-spatial evolution of environmental footprints across provinces scales in China. • The driving factors of environmental footprints are revealed by the improved STIRPAT model. • Environmental pressures vary regionally between eastern, central, and western China. • “Past-future” trends in environmental footprints for five SSPs scenarios are explored.