Predicting socio-climatic risk hotspots for smallholder dairy farming: A 2050 forecast for the Indo-Gangetic plains of India

The unprecedented changes in the climatic conditions are being indiscriminately experienced across the globe, with effects which are felt asymmetrically around the world by different regions due to numerous socioeconomic disparities in play. Especially, the higher magnitude of rising temperatures and aberrations in rainfall make the Indo Gangetic Plains (IGP) more fragile toward social facets of climatic vulnerabilities. Indo Gangetic Plains are dominated by smallholders with higher agricultural production and livestock, for whose sustainability it is imperative to comprehend the nature and extent of risk due to climate change in an interaction with the societal aspects. A novel district-level socio-climatic risk index for dairying, constituting 71 indicators tailored to and encompassing the dairy production system, was developed using the IPCC Risk Assessment Framework (2014). Taking it one step further, geospatial hotspots were analysed (using Getis Ord Gi*) to quantify district-level risks for the dairy production system in Indo Gangetic Plains spanning across the 171 districts of five states of India. To capture the dynamics of the changing risk, the historical risk was compared against two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, namely, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The results revealed a higher area of 11,071,783 hectares under risk hotspots in the eastern part of IGP (covering Bihar and West Bengal) projected to intensify and increase in area by 1,690,921 hectares (3.83%) and 1,667,179 hectares (3.78%) as per SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, by the 2050s. Hence, location-specific adaptation plan may be formulated to improve the climate resiliency of the smallholder dairy production system of India.