Future climate change will facilitate the distribution expansion of the rare and endangered Platycrater arguta

Platycrater arguta , an endangered shrub endemic to China subtropical montane forests, plays a key role in regional biodiversity. However, the potential impacts of climate change on its suitable habitat remain unclear. This study employs ensemble modeling to predict the species' distribution under current and future climate scenarios (2050s, 2070s, 2090s) across three SSPs (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). Annual precipitation (BIO12), and UV-B radiation (UVB4) were identified as dominant environmental drivers. Currently, core suitable habitats are concentrated in Zhejiang, Fujian, and Jiangxi, covering approximately 6.72×10 4 km 2 . Predicted expansion peaks under SSP585 (2070s), followed by SSP245 (2090s), SSP585 (2090s) and SSP126 (2070s). Future core distribution areas are expected to shift northwestward toward the Jiangxi-Hunan border, a region with complex topography. We recommend prioritizing this zone for conservation, establishing ecological corridors, and enhancing ex situ conservation under SSP126. To improve predictive accuracy, future work should incorporate finer-scale regional climate data and field monitoring. Notably, this study is the first to quantify P. arguta sensitivity thresholds to precipitation and UVB radiation, offering a reference model for conserving other subtropical endangered plants. • Modeled climate-driven habitat shifts of Platycrater arguta under three SSPs. • BIO12 and UVB4 identified as key environmental drivers. • Core habitats shift northwestward, peaking in SSP585 (2070s). • SSP585 offers highest long-term habitat stability for conservation planning. • First to quantify species' sensitivity to precipitation and UV-B radiation.