Navigating rural futures: Scenario-Based insights into non-agricultural employment in western Iran

Rural communities are increasingly challenged by climate change, declining agricultural productivity, and economic vulnerabilities, highlighting the urgent need for livelihood diversification. This study aims to identify, analyze, and forecast the key driving factors shaping the future of rural non-agricultural employment (RNFE) in the Bilavar district, Kermanshah, Iran. Specifically, the research seeks to (1) determine the main socio-economic and environmental variables influencing RNFE, (2) assess their mutual interactions, and (3) develop plausible future scenarios to support rural policy planning. A mixed-methods design was employed, integrating sustainable development and social capital frameworks. Using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard analytical tools, key drivers and interrelationships were explored to construct alternative futures. Results reveal that government support policies (V3), entrepreneurship and innovation (V4), and rural tourism (V13) emerged as the most influential and strategic drivers of RNFE development. Among the scenarios, balanced growth (Scenario 2) is the most likely, reflecting gradual progress under current conditions, while conservative stability and stagnation (Scenarios 3 and 4) are also plausible. The primary objective to develop a foresight-based framework for rural employment diversification underscores the importance of targeted interventions such as local financial initiatives, market-oriented skills training, and tourism infrastructure development to promote economic diversification, reduce youth migration, and enhance livelihood resilience. The study introduces a novel, futures-oriented analytical framework and offers a practical model applicable to similar rural regions in developing countries. • Scenario-based foresight reveals key drivers of rural non-farm employment growth. • Government policies, entrepreneurship, and tourism drive rural non-farm employment development. • Balanced growth scenario emerges as the most likely rural employment future. • MICMAC-Scenario Wizard framework identifies 16 drivers with 86.7% density. • Targeted skills, finance, and tourism policies strengthen rural livelihood resilience.