Spatial reconfiguration and drivers of ecological risk in the karst region of China: An integrated GMOP-PLUS-InVEST assessment

China’s karst ecosystems represent a global hotspot of rocky desertification and ecological vulnerability, posing significant challenges for balancing ecological preservation with socioeconomic development. However, persistent scientific gaps remain in quantifying climate-mediated ecological risks (ER) mechanisms, limiting evidence-based conservation strategies. This study employs an integrated social-environment framework that links ecological conditions with landscape sustainability to examine ER dynamics from 2000 to 2020 in karst region of China. The results reveal a significant shift in ER patterns over this period. High-risk areas (0.017 ≤ ERI < 0.021) expanded from 14.8% to 19.4%, with the most pronounced increase concentrated in the arid Northwest, indicating a spatial reconfiguration. However, the extensively studied southwestern regions exhibited relative stabilization under ongoing ecological restoration. This spatial reconfiguration is attributed to the compounding effects of water scarcity, sparse vegetation, and intensive human activity on the fragile northwestern ecosystems, whereas extensive ecological restoration projects in the Southwest have enhanced vegetation cover and soil retention, thereby mitigating inherent geological vulnerability. Multi-scenario projection demonstrate that the natural development scenario (NDS) facilitates ecological self-recovery and minimizes future ER, whereas economic prioritization would significantly exacerbate degradation in arid karst region. Crucially, partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) identifies precipitation ( β = -0.190, p < 0.001) as the dominant risk-reducing factor through vegetation-mediated hydrological feedbacks. These findings highlight that contemporary ecological risk is driven more by the synergy of climate pressure and human expansion than by inherent vulnerability, necessitating a critical reevaluation of conservation priorities and region-specific mitigation strategies. • Integrated GMOP-PLUS-InVEST framework quantifies karst ecological risk. • A significant spatial shift in risk hotspots to the arid region Northwest China • The natural development scenario minimizes future ER via vegetation-soil feedbacks. • Climate zone-specific drivers demand differentiated ecological risk governance.