Local and tele coupling coordination between urbanization and ecosystem services and its static-dynamic sustainable management zoning: A case study of the coastal zone of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area

Elucidating the coupling coordination characteristics between urbanization and ecosystem services (ES) is a key prerequisite for the sustainable management of coastal regions. Taking the coastal zone of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a case study, and using multi-source data from four time periods (1990-2020), this study developed an analytical framework of “local and tele coupling coordination diagnosis of urbanization and ES and static-dynamic zoning optimization”. First, urbanization level was assessed from demographic, economic, and spatial dimensions, and five ES (food supply, carbon storage, soil conservation, water yield, and habitat quality) were quantified using the InVEST model. Second, a local coupling coordination degree model and a telecoupling network were introduced to reveal coupling coordination characteristics between urbanization and ES. Finally, by integrating four-quadrant static zoning with dynamic zoning based on the rate of change in coupling coordination, a static-dynamic integrated management zoning system was established. The results show that: (1) Spatially, urbanization exhibits a “high-center, low-east/west” pattern, while most ES show the opposite pattern, indicating a significant spatial inverse differentiation between the two; (2) Temporally, the local coupling coordination degree improved from near imbalance (0.435) in 1990 to primary coordination (0.538) in 2020, whereas the tele-coupling coordination intensity remains generally weak, reflecting insufficient cross-regional collaborative governance; (3) In terms of zoning, the study area can be divided into four types: optimization-improvement zone, optimization-enhancement zone, stability-maintenance zone, and key conservation zone, with each zone exhibiting significantly different statuses and risks in the coordinated development of urbanization and ES. This study reveals the coupling coordination characteristics and spatiotemporal differentiation patterns between coastal urbanization and ES, breaks through the limitations of traditional local static analysis, emphasizes the impact of telecoupling on coastal humanland systems, and provides scientific support for refined governance and sustainable development.