Dynamic evolution and multiscale drivers of green finance for high-quality energy transition

Against the backdrop of global climate governance and energy security restructuring, high-quality energy development has ascended to the core of national strategy. Green finance, by supporting low-carbon initiatives, plays a critical role in facilitating the transformation of energy systems, while energy development, in turn, guides the direction of green finance. This study establishes the coupling coordination index index (2011–2023) in China. Using Dagum’s Gini coefficient and Moran’s I to measure spatial disparities and examine distribution characteristics. Kernel density estimation and Markov chain models are applied to analyze dynamic evolutionary trends, and a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) is employed to identify key driving factors. Results demonstrate an upward annual trend in in the level of coordination, yet with significant regional heterogeneity; Strong positive spatial spillovers and club convergence among adjacent areas; The coordinated development of both systems is influenced by multiple factors. Based on this, it is proposed that to further improve the coupling coordination degree, it is necessary to consolidate the development foundation to foster a supportive policy environment; and implement dual approaches through precise governance and collaborative mechanisms, executing differentiated strategies while fully leveraging inter-regional synergies.