The rising cost of cooling: Regional energy futures in a warming Saudi Arabia

This study quantifies the impact of a warming climate on regional residential electricity demand and the power system costs in Saudi Arabia. Using region-specific models estimated over the 1990-2020 period across four regions (Central, Eastern, Southern, Western), we find that a 1 °C increase in average temperature raises electricity consumption for cooling by 12.9%, 10.3%, 8.3%, and 4.8% in the Western, Southern, Central, and Eastern regions, respectively. Under the high-emission SSP5 pathway, cooling-related electricity use by 2060 is projected to exceed the SSP2 baseline by nearly 20 TWh; the SSP1 scenario reduces consumption by about 8 TWh. A power system optimization model shows that the SSP1 pathway yields the lowest long-term system costs, saving $9.41 billion relative to SSP2 over the 2024-2060 period, while SSP5 increases total system costs by $12.57 billion. These results underscore the economic benefits of global climate mitigation for Saudi Arabia's energy system.