Did hard facts or journalistic opinion predict stock prices during the COVID-19 pandemic?
Abstract
Using automated content analysis, we measure the tone of Covid-related newspaper articles. This tone, unlike the actual Covid mortality statistics, appears to predict future stock returns in the United States and the United Kingdom. It is debatable, however, to what degree such findings should be viewed as a manifestation of investors’ irrationality. This is because our media optimism index appears to be a reliable prognosticator of the number of coronavirus deaths and the future growth in industrial production. Clearly, in this case, journalistic news coverage was forward-looking and informative to stock market participants.
Fields of Study & Subjects
COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
Publication details
- Journal / source
- International Review of Economics & Finance
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Volume
- 108
- Pages
- 105273–105273
- Publication date
- 15 April 2026
- Language
- EN