Shifting spillover dynamics between sustainability indices and tourism markets amid geopolitical crises

This study explores the dynamic interconnectedness between global sustainability indices and tourism sector dynamics during two major geopolitical conflicts: the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel-Palestine conflicts, covering the period September 2022 to September 2025. Employing a connectedness framework, the findings reveal a significant increase, with the total connectedness index rising from 34.81% during the Russia-Ukraine conflict to 39.70% in the Israel-Palestine conflict, averaging 46.49% across the full sample period. These results suggest strengthening global linkages and a reduction in diversification opportunities. During the Russian-Ukraine conflict, emerging markets such as China-SUS and Brazil-SUS functioned as major transmitters of sustainability shocks, whereas developed markets, including France-SUS and Australia-SUS, were primary acted as receivers. In contrast, during the Israel-Palestine conflict, advanced economies, including Europe-SUS and the USA-SUS, emerged as dominant transmitters, while France-TRM and Australia-TRM absorbed majority of these shocks. Full-sample analysis indicates a structural shift in the transmission mechanism, with emerging markets such as Turkey-SUS, Brazil-SUS, and China-SUS consistently acting as net transmitters of spillover, while France-TRM, Australia-TRM, and Brazil-TRM remain consistent receivers. Overall, the findings demonstrate that sustainability indices do not act as safe havens for tourism markets during period of geopolitical instability; instead, they intensify cross-market interconnectedness and exacerbate the vulnerability of the tourism sector.