How geopolitical risks shape China's investment Links along the Belt and Road? A regional analysis

Geopolitical risks such as great-power rivalry, regional conflicts and terrorism are profoundly affecting the investment links among countries. This study examines the impact and mechanisms of geopolitical risks on investment links in countries along the the Belt and Road. The study found: (1) Geopolitical risks will weaken the investment links between the countries along the Belt and Road and China; (2) Geopolitical risks have inhibited bilateral investment links by worsening the institutional environment and reducing financial stability; (3) In upper-middle-income countries, the negative impact of geopolitical risks is more pronounced;in countries with special strategic value, geopolitical risks may exert a positive driving force on China’s investment, presenting an "investment paradox". This study revealed the transmission mechanism through which geopolitical risks affect the investment links between China and the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative. It provides empirical evidence for investors to identify regions sensitive to geopolitical risks and formulate differentiated investment strategies, and also offers theoretical support for policymakers to improve the geopolitical risks early warning system.