Big data technology and new quality productive forces: Evidence from national big data comprehensive pilot zones in China

Using panel data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China spanning 2011–2023, this study treats national big data comprehensive (NBDC) pilot zone implementation as an exogenous policy shock and employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to examine the impact of big data technology (BDT) on new quality productive forces (NQPF). The results reveal that BDT significantly promotes NQPF development. Mechanism analysis reveals that market integration, innovation factor allocation efficiency, and industrial structure upgrading are key channels through which BDT promotes NQPF. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the positive effect is more pronounced in eastern regions, large cities, and cities with higher digital infrastructure levels. Spatial analysis demonstrates that BDT promotes local NQPF development while exerting negative spillover effects on surrounding areas. Furthermore, the spatial spillover effect exhibits a nonlinear pattern of initial suppression followed by promotion as geographic distance increases, with a spatial attenuation boundary of approximately 1,200 km. This study provides theoretical and empirical support for advancing NQPF and promoting NBDC pilot zones to unlock the full potential of BDT.