Research on the coupling mechanism and risk early warning of rare earth-energy industry chain resilience under the interweaving of digital transformation and geopolitical conflicts

ABSTRACT In the context of the continuous advancement of digital transformation globally and the increasingly complex geopolitical conflicts, the resilience level of the rare earth and energy industry chains is of vital importance for safeguarding national economic security. This article conducts an analysis on the coupling relationship between the rare earth and energy industry chains, aiming to reveal the internal mechanism of how digital transformation reshapes the resilience of the industry chains, and simultaneously builds a resilience transmission model to conduct quantitative analysis of its dynamic cycle process. By systematically exploring the specific paths of the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the industry chains, and applying the improved Rough Set (RS) theory to establish a risk warning index system and corresponding model, it provides scientific decision-making for the stable operation of the industry chains. The research shows that digital transformation can significantly enhance the resilience of the industry chains, but geopolitical conflicts will interfere with or even block the resilience transmission, and the interweaving of the two brings new risks and challenges to the industry chains.