Projected cardiovascular mortality attributable to extreme temperatures under climate scenarios in Taiyuan, China

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a serious public health challenge in China, and the increasingly frequent extreme temperature events have brought new health threats to it. This study assessed the future burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality attributable to extreme temperatures (heat and cold waves) in Taiyuan under climate change. The analysis used historical mortality data (2013-2020) with distributed lag non-linear and generalized additive models (DLNMs/GAMs), integrated with future CMIP6 climate and population scenarios. Heatwaves exert immediate effects, disproportionately affecting women and the elderly, while cold wave impacts are delayed and more severe for men. Projections for the 2050s show heat-related mortality under SSP5-8.5 could be 2.7 times that under SSP1-2.6. The implementation of adaptation measures can significantly mitigate the risks and impacts of extreme temperatures. This study provides a scientific basis for climate-resilient health policies, with crucial implications for protecting population health.