SDG progress and the challenge of inclusive wealth sustainability

This study investigates whether progress toward the sustainable development goals (SDGs) translates into long-term sustainability, measured through changes in inclusive wealth. Using a balanced panel of 90 countries (2000-2019), we model the relationship between all 17 SDGs and per-capita produced, human, and natural capital within the inclusive wealth index framework. We apply Cubist regression to capture nonlinear and heterogeneous effects, and project SDG and wealth trajectories to 2040 under business-as-usual, pessimistic, and accelerated scenarios. Results show that SDG progress is positively associated with inclusive wealth, largely driven by gains in produced and human capital, but often accompanied by declines in natural capital. Accelerated SDG progress yields the highest projected wealth gains, though outcomes vary substantially across countries and are not uniformly sustainable. These findings validate the SDGs' universality and indivisibility while highlighting the need to complement indicator-based monitoring with wealth-based metrics to better align development pathways with long-term sustainability.