Tailoring electric arc furnace steelmaking expansion pathways based on regional scrap and energy availability in China

Electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking underpins China's low-carbon steel transition, while uneven regional resources and energy conditions greatly constrain its low-carbon development. This study adopts a province-level material flow analysis-capacity integration framework with multi-scenario modeling to explore targeted regional decarbonization pathways. Although national scrap supply generally meets domestic EAF demand, severe provincial mismatches occur: major producers, including Hebei (36.3 Mt) and Guangdong (32.0 Mt), heavily rely on interprovincial scrap transfers. Low-carbon electricity-rich regions are spatially separated from core EAF hubs, driving large disparities in provincial electricity carbon intensity (0.101–0.171 kg CO 2 kWh −1 by 2060) and heterogeneous EAF emissions ranging from 69.6 to 92.7 Mt across scenarios. This study highlights dynamic scrap circulation, renewable energy matching, and differentiated provincial policies to coordinate national steel decarbonization.