The predictive role of daily emotional dynamics in depression, anxiety, and academic performance: A longitudinal study in adolescents

Understanding how day-to-day emotional dynamics indices predict mental health and academic outcomes during adolescence is important, as this developmental stage represents a critical period for emotional and cognitive development. 179 adolescents (44.13 % males, M age = 12.80 ± 0.41) at baseline participated in a two-year longitudinal study. Positive and negative affect were assessed daily via ecological momentary assessment, for 2 weeks every 6 months, over two years. Depressive and anxiety symptoms were measured during the same timepoints and academic performance was measured at baseline and two years later. Emotional dynamics were derived from the affect data collected during the first 18 months and used to predict the mood outcomes and academic performance at the 24-month follow-up. Collectively, positive affect dynamics indices predicted depressive ( p = .001, ∆R 2 = 14.3 %) and anxiety symptoms ( p = .019, ∆R 2 = 10.0 %), and negative affect dynamics indices predicted anxiety symptoms ( p = .002, ∆R 2 = 14.7 %). Specifically, higher positive affect intensity predicted lower depressive ( p < .001, ∆R 2 = 10.9 %) and anxiety symptoms ( p = .001, ∆R 2 = 8.1 %), and higher negative affect intensity predicted higher anxiety symptoms ( p = .046, ∆R 2 = 3.2 %), but not depressive symptoms. No significant effects of emotional dynamics on future academic performance were found. Across timepoints, more intense positive daily affect predicted lower depression and anxiety symptoms, while more intense daily negative affect predicted higher anxiety symptoms, but not depressive symptoms, highlighting the importance of daily positive affect intensity as a potential protective factor for adolescent mental health. • Higher positive affect intensity predicted lower depressive symptoms. • Higher positive affect intensity predicted lower anxiety symptoms. • Higher negative affect intensity predicted higher anxiety symptoms, but not depressive symptoms.