Arctic navigation risk assessment using ICESat-2 and GIS-Based AHP

The Arctic Ocean is among the world’s most hazardous maritime regions, where sea ice, uncharted bathymetry, and limited emergency infrastructure threaten vessel safety. Recent advances in remote sensing now provide critical spatial data that can mitigate these risks. This study proposes a GIS-based framework for monthly Arctic navigation risk assessment by integrating sea ice, bathymetry, satellite communication, and accessibility to rescue and evacuation infrastructure. Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE) with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), risks were evaluated from September 2022 to April 2023 with ICESat-2 observations. Five vessel classes were analyzed, from non-icebreaking ships to those with maximum icebreaking capacities of 1.0 m, 1.5 m, 2.0 m, and 2.8 m. The resulting maps delineate monthly risk zones and reveal spatial and temporal variability across the Arctic. These outputs provide decision support for safer routing, operational preparedness, and policy development. The framework also demonstrates practical relevance for e-Navigation systems and advances methodological approaches to maritime risk assessment.