Time-varying risk aversion and the equity term structure
Abstract
I show that time-varying risk aversion over wealth can generate a term structure of equity risk premia that is upward sloping in bad times and downward sloping in good times. I thereby provide a mechanism behind recent reduced-form models that successfully match the counter-cyclicality of the equity term structure assuming exogenous stochastic discount factors. The parsimonious model that I propose jointly matches the empirical findings on the conditional equity term structures, cross sectional variation of the equity term structure, return predictability and the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle. I also discuss several new predictions. More broadly, I illustrate the importance of key experimental findings of risk preferences, like being domain-specific, time-varying and allowing risk seekingness, for understanding asset prices.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Stochastic processes and financial applications
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
- Volume
- 49
- Pages
- 101141–101141
- Publication date
- 15 January 2026
- Language
- EN