Can green economic growth and carbon emission reduction coexist? A decoupling study in the energy sector

Decoupling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from economic growth has become a critical aspect of climate policy. This study explores the feasibility of achieving absolute decoupling in the global energy sector by 2050 under three economic and emission reduction scenarios. A dynamic life cycle assessment (LCA) is conducted in the electricity and heat sub-sectors to account for supply chain emissions and evaluate discrepancies between reported and modeled emissions. The results reveal that, although certain scenarios offer the possibility of maintaining economic growth while reducing GHG emissions, transformative technological advancements and significant policy interventions are needed to achieve substantial reduction rates in both emissions and technology intensity (>10% annually). Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 appears unlikely under the current economic framework. The study highlights the complex relationship between technological innovation, policy, and growth, suggesting that relying solely on technology improvements may not be sufficient to meet energy sector climate goals. The dynamic LCA results indicate that including supply chain emissions in the electricity and heat sub-sector increases total GHG emissions by 20% in 2023. The multiregional analysis revealed strong regional disparities, with technology intensity declining by 62% in Europe and 45% in Africa since 1990. These differences are even greater between OECD and non-OECD countries, reflecting variations in access to technology, investment capacity, and policy implementation. Overall, the study demonstrates that achieving ambitious emission reductions in the energy sector is challenging without major structural changes in economic and policy frameworks, especially when considering supply chain emissions.