Material flows in the UK wood system: reducing import dependency and emissions through circular economy

The United Kingdom imports over twice its domestic wood harvest, creating severe exposure to geopolitical supply risks. This study presents a material flow analysis quantifying the potential of circular economy interventions to reduce import dependency as well as emissions. We show that in 2018, the UK imported 67% of wood and 64% of paper products, with domestic recycling rates at just 20% and 28%. Scenario modelling demonstrates that combining increased forest productivity, onshoring recycling, and landfill elimination raises the domestic paper recycling rate to 61% and reduces import dependency to 48% (wood) and 33% (paper), while generating 30.9 PJ of energy. Furthermore, substituting imported biomass with the additional energy reduces emissions by up to 5.5 Mt CO 2 eq, assuming carbon is taken up by the forest again, whilst halving wood import dependency to 32%. Our findings show the circular economy can simultaneously deliver decarbonization and geopolitical benefits through reduced import dependency.