Minority threat and social context: Global value chains and the carceral effect of ethnic polarization in rich democracies

Integrating minority threat theory with the political economy of globalization, this study theorizes and empirically tests how macrostructural changes via global value chains (GVCs) shape the carceral consequences of rising ethnic polarization in rich democracies. GVC integration should increase economic insecurity, activate and escalate latent racial and ethnic tensions, intensify dominant groups' perceptions of minority threat, and shift state strategies toward more punitive forms of social control. Thus, ethnic polarization should more strongly increase incarceration rates in countries more deeply integrated into GVCs. Using panel data from 20 countries and fixed-effects models, we examine how GVC integration moderates the relationship between within-country changes in ethnic polarization and incarceration rates. Our findings provide strong evidence that GVC integration amplifies the positive effect of ethnic polarization on incarceration. We conclude by reflecting on the broader implications of these findings for understanding the intersection of globalization, ethnic polarization, and incarceration. • Cross-national findings on minority threat and incarceration are mixed. • The relationship between ethnic polarization and incarceration is context dependent. • Ethnic polarization increases incarceration in rich democracies. • Global value chain integration amplifies the carceral effects of ethnic polarization. • Integrates minority threat theory with the political economy of globalization.