Immigration and serious gang violence: Assessing the immigrant revitalization thesis on urban gang shootings

Over the past few decades, extensive empirical evidence has supported the immigrant revitalization thesis, demonstrating that immigration is often associated with reductions in community crime. However, debate over the relationship between immigration and crime has increasingly grown in public and political discourse with many politicians claiming immigration fuels gang violence. Yet remarkably little research has examined immigration effects on serious gang violence, despite pervasive rhetoric suggesting that immigration adds to gang crime. The current study addresses this gap in the research by examining the association between immigration, fatal, and nonfatal gang shootings across 77 Chicago community areas during the 2010–2021 period, using fixed effects negative binomial models. Findings suggest immigration is unrelated to increasing gang violence in Chicago neighborhoods but serves as a strong protective force against these forms of serious violence when they are unrelated to gang activity. Together, these findings challenge contemporary claims that immigration contributes to serious gang violence and reinforces the importance of distinguishing gang and non-gang violence when evaluating the crime consequences of immigration. • Immigration is unrelated to increasing gang violence in Chicago neighborhoods. • Despite rising fatal and nonfatal shootings, immigration protected Chicago communities from broader gun violence, 2010 to 2021. • Not all violent events – particularly gang related – respond to social process in exactly the same way. • Findings push back on recent claims that immigration fueled lethal gang violence.