Weapon supply shocks, violence, and migration
Abstract
I use shocks to the world supply of weapons to identify the causal effect of violence as a driver of the U.S. migrant border crisis. The main finding is that weapon supply shocks increase violence, and violence increases migration. Migration is not monotonic after violence shocks, implying changes in migration timing that have neutral impacts over sixteen quarters. Critically, children and unaccompanied children react the least rapidly to violence.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Migration and Labor Dynamics
Migration and Exile Studies
Migration
Refugees
and Integration
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Journal of Development Economics
- Volume
- 181
- Pages
- 103728–103728
- Publication date
- 12 February 2026
- Language
- EN