Environmental impact and economic analysis of waste photovoltaic materials recycling: A multi-scenario analysis

The widespread deployment of early-generation photovoltaic modules in China is generating substantial end-of-life waste, posing challenges related to resource loss, environmental risks, and circular economy transition. This study employs a dynamic multi-scenario Weibull distribution model to quantify the recycling benefits of eight PV module types installed from 2013 to 2030. Results show that TOPCon modules dominate future waste streams, reaching 93.41 GW by 2050, and yield the highest material recovery. Critical metals such as Ag, In, and Te are concentrated in XBC, HJT, and CdTe technologies. Aluminum recycling contributes approximately 69.18%, 52.22%, 42.50%, and 77.44% to the midpoint environmental benefits of BSF, PERC, TOPCon, and CIGS modules, respectively, while In recycling in HJT modules reduces resource scarcity by 909.43 USD 2013. Environmental benefits are lower in the well-maintained scenarios (S1 and S2) compared to the medium-maintenance scenarios (S3 and S4). Early failures (S2 and S4) result in environmental benefits that are generally 20-30% higher than those of conventional failures (S1 and S3). Economic returns are notably higher in early-failure and medium-maintenance scenarios. Findings support targeted PV recycling strategies adapted to disposal scenario characteristics.