A decade of weather anomalies and natural disasters and their influence on environmental beliefs and actions across Australia

This study examined how chronic weather anomalies (i.e., temperature and precipitation deviations from long-term averages) and acute disasters (e.g., wildfires, hurricanes, floods) relate to individual pro-climate beliefs, postcode-level voting for climate-aligned parties, and solar panel installations (a proxy for pro-environmental behaviour) across Australia between 2013 and 2022. We found that long-term temperature deviations were positively associated with stronger climate change beliefs, whereas both above- and below-average rainfall showed small but positive associations with voting for the politically left-leaning parties and with solar panel installations. Acute disasters showed stronger associations, predicting greater belief in climate change, with significant effects observed when the disaster occurred further in the past. For voting, the pattern moved in the opposite direction, with the largest effects appearing when disasters happened closer to the election date and weakening as more time passed. In contrast, the association between acute disasters and solar panel installations was negligible, suggesting that disasters did not influence household adoption. Together, these findings suggest that while chronic weather deviations have small and inconsistent effects, acute one-off disasters show stronger associations with climate beliefs and voting. This pattern indicates that direct high-impact experiences can partly motivate climate awareness and action. • Weather and disaster data were linked to beliefs, voting, and solar uptake in Australia. • Long-term temperature deviations aligned with stronger belief in climate change. • Weather anomalies showed small, mixed effects on voting and solar panel installations. • Acute disasters occurring in more distant time windows were associated with higher climate belief. • Disasters near elections were linked to higher votes for climate-aligned parties.