Risk assessment in oil and gas industry: A simulation study

Over the years, several industrial disasters have gained global attention due to deficiencies in process safety management and of respective assets’ integrity. Risk analysis serves as a key tool for identifying operational failures that can lead to accidental chemical releases, fires, and/or explosions. This study aimed to assess the vulnerability and impacts of explosion and fire events in onshore oil processing facilities, specifically those involved in exporting natural gas to primary oil treatment and collection stations. Four accidental scenarios involving large flammable gas leaks were proposed to evaluate the resulting physical effects in the vicinity of a selected facility and to demonstrate their potential extent. A quantitative risk assessment approach was applied, and ALOHA software was used to estimate dispersion behavior, thermal radiation, and overpressure levels for the selected scenarios. The scenario with the greatest impact was the vapor cloud explosion, with a 68 m radius during a large daytime natural gas leak, resulting in an estimated 60% fatality rate, while explosion effects reached a radius of 59 m under critical overpressure conditions. Based on these findings, emergency response plans were developed for both explosion and fire scenarios, outlining the material and human resources required to ensure operational readiness and mitigation capability. The results also highlight that risk exposure extends beyond the facility boundaries, placing the entire surrounding area at significant vulnerability.