Associations between physical activity parameters and multidimensional trajectories of muscle health in middle-aged and older adults: a group-based multi-trajectory modeling study

Objectives: This study used a group-based multi-trajectory model (GBMTM) to identify distinct muscle health trajectories and examine their associations with physical activity (PA) in middle-aged and older adults. Methods: Data were obtained from 2818 middle-aged and older adults (aged ≥40 years) in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2015). Muscle health was assessed using muscle mass (appendicular skeletal muscle mass index), muscle strength (handgrip strength), and physical performance (5-time chair stand test). PA was assessed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short Form. A GBMTM was applied to jointly identify longitudinal trajectories of muscle mass, muscle strength, and physical performance, and to evaluate their associations with PA. Results: In this study, four muscle health trajectories were identified: low-function declining, moderate-function declining, moderate-function stable, and high-function stable group. Engaging in ≥150 min/wk of light PA (LPA), moderate PA (MPA), or vigorous PA (VPA) was associated with the moderate-function stable group (LPA: aOR = 3.44, 95% CI: 1.94 - 6.11; MPA: aOR = 2.83, 95% CI: 1.67 - 4.96; VPA: aOR = 2.88, 95% CI: 1.61 - 5.13) and the high-function stable group (LPA: aOR = 5.20, 95% CI: 2.44 - 11.19; MPA: aOR = 4.10, 95% CI: 1.92 - 8.73; VPA: aOR = 3.42, 95% CI: 1.55 - 8.55). In older adults aged ≥70 years, associations persisted for MPA and VPA. Conclusion: Distinct muscle health trajectories highlight individualized muscle aging and inform personalized PA guidance. Regular PA ≥150 min/wk across intensities was associated with more favorable longitudinal muscle health.