Endogenous mobility in pandemics: Theory and evidence from the United States
Abstract
We analyze infectious diseases in a general equilibrium model with endogenous mobility, where forward-looking agents weigh disease risks against economic opportunities in cross-regional mobility decisions. This generates “self-containment” and “self-healing” mobility responses to regional differences in healthcare and prevalence. Applied to US COVID-19 data, our model reveals that cross-state mobility restrictions curbed infections by reducing cross-regional contacts but increased deaths and output loss by hindering mobility toward regions with better recovery outcomes. Relative to a model with exogenous mobility, our framework predicts fewer infections, lower mortality, and higher economic output following the unanticipated pandemic shock.
Fields of Study & Subjects
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts
Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Journal of International Economics
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Volume
- 162
- Pages
- 104298–104298
- Publication date
- 20 June 2026
- Language
- EN