New methods for the assessment and prediction of vector-borne infectious diseases

This study demonstrates that the single-population SEIR (Susceptible- Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model is also applicable to the assessment and prediction of vector-borne infectious disease outbreaks, aiming to provide a reliable model tool for future prevention and control of vector-borne unknown (X) epidemics. One of the key points is the suitable and reasonable interpretation of the model parameters. The EpiSIX prediction system under the choice of single SEIR model was used to fit and analyze the 2025 Chikungunya fever epidemic data in Foshan City and the 2024–2025 Dengue fever epidemic data in Guangdong Province. The results showed that the average serial interval of both fevers was approximately 11 days. The estimated basic reproduction number (R₀) was around 6.0 for the Chikungunya fever epidemic in Foshan City, and approximately 4.0 and 3.0 for the 2024 and 2025 Dengue fever epidemics in Guangdong Province, respectively. Additionally, a prediction of the development trend of the ongoing 2025 Dengue fever epidemic in Guangdong Province was made, indicating that the final number of infections would range between 3,400 and 6,000 cases. Finally, a comparison was conducted between the uncontrolled developments of the Omicron epidemic (with an average serial interval of 4 days) and the Chikungunya fever epidemic (with an average serial interval of 11 days, 2.75 times that of Omicron) under the same R₀ value (5.60). The results showed that the Omicron epidemic would last for 50 days, while the Chikungunya fever epidemic would persist for 120 days. Theoretically, the pressure of the former on medical resources would be 2.5 times that of the latter.