Accelerating green innovation dynamics: Cross-scale modelling of technology competition and institutional inertia

Sustainable energy transitions face systemic barriers from technological evolution and institutional inertia. This study develops an integrated modelling framework combining System Dynamics, Evolutionary Game Theory, and Multi-Level Perspective to analyse co-evolutionary dynamics between innovation capacity, technology competition, and institutional resistance across three coupled processes: innovation capacity accumulation through R&D feedback loops, competitive technology dynamics with institutional resistance effects, and cross-scale niche-regime interactions. Model validation employed out-of-sample testing against EU renewable energy deployment data (2010–2024), with systematic recalibration improving performance from severe predictive failure (R²=−3.445) to strong aggregate fit (R²=0.906, RMSE=0.0258) and high-fidelity disaggregated performance for Solar PV (R²=0.965) and offshore wind (R²=0.920). Holdout performance (2019–2024, R²=−0.101) reflects REPowerEU-driven overprediction, reported as a model boundary condition. Recalibration reduced institutional resistance by 37.5% and increased innovation coupling by 47%, reflecting post-Paris Agreement evolution. Sensitivity analysis, confirmed by multicollinearity diagnostics (maximum VIF=2.3; primary parameters γ and ζ achieving VIF=1.2 and 1.1 respectively), reveals that regime resistance independently accounts for 67% and innovation coupling for 58% of transition outcome variance. Threshold analysis identified a critical readiness ratio (Rg/Rc=1.40 ± 0.15) marking the policy-dependent to self-sustaining transition: Solar PV 2024 (ratio=1.35) requires 15–20% further cost reductions, while offshore wind 2024 (ratio=1.52) has achieved autonomous expansion. Maintaining constant effectiveness requires a 60% stringency escalation (P = 50% to P = 80%) as institutional alignment strengthens from Ar= 0.20 to Ar= 0.60. Scenario analysis confirms technology-optimistic pathways (72% adoption, ROI=2.4) cross threshold seven years earlier than baseline scenarios (55% adoption, ROI=1.5) through simultaneous institutional reform and innovation acceleration.