Integrating risk and scalability in the assessment of early-stage clean technologies

Decarbonization requires the large-scale adoption of emerging technologies that are still in early development stages and not yet commercially competitive. Early-stage technologies (TRL 3-6) are often marked by high uncertainty and a lack of reliable data, which hinders investment and slows progress. Existing assessment models can estimate potential effectively but tend to overlook development risks, contributing to the Valley of Death. To address this challenge, financial actors need tools that are quantitative, practical, and realistic. This study introduces an integrated framework for the preliminary assessment of emerging technologies, combining techno-economic and environmental indicators with the evaluation of technology risk and scalability. The framework is structured around three categories: Technology Risk, which captures uncertainties related to maturity and manufacturability; Scalability, which assesses the ease of deployment; and Technology Potential, which estimates long-term performances. The framework is applied to seven case studies involving thin-film solar modules and phospho-olivine cathodes for lithium-ion batteries. Results are compared with real-world outcomes, showing that including risk and scalability leads to more accurate and informative assessments. The study also underscores the importance of adapting evaluation criteria to the specific type and stage of each technology. This framework provides useful guidance for early-stage investment and policy decisions.