Risk transmission mechanism and prevention framework of hydrogen pipeline: A dual-drive hybrid approach

Hydrogen energy stands as a pivotal secondary energy carrier for achieving carbon neutrality, yet its high propensity for leakage, ignition, and cascading explosions presents unprecedented multi-state, low-probability-high-consequence risks for pipeline transportation. Current research lacks quantitative characterization of chain-reaction failure mechanisms in hydrogen pipelines, impeding precision risk mitigation. Based on an analysis of 50 global hydrogen pipeline accident cases, this study applies the Delphi method to identify and extract 45 high-frequency risk events that critically influence hydrogen infrastructure failures. We propose a dual-driven hybrid model that integrates complex network theory with association rule mining. Using complex network theory, we constructed the topological structure of the initial disaster chain network and identified the top 10 critical nodes through composite centrality indices. A Frequent Pattern Growth (FP-Growth) algorithm based on risk importance was implemented to investigate coupling relationships between risk sources and accident consequences, revealing intrinsic accident mechanisms. By mapping these association rules onto a directed weighted network, we identified two high-risk disaster chains. Critical findings show that gasket fatigue and seal failure are primary initiators of leakage, while the transition from leakage to explosion represents a core escalation pathway. By fusing global network metrics with localized FP-Growth rules, our approach quantitatively locates silent risks in hydrogen pipelines. The proposed three-tier prevention system encompasses source control, process interruption, and terminal emergency response. It is designed for seamless integration within integrity management cycles. This research provides both a methodological framework and decision-support tools for scalable risk governance of hydrogen infrastructure, addressing a critical gap in sustainable energy transition safety protocols.