Quantifying Environmental and Societal Risks in Aging Natural Gas Pipelines: A Dynamic Bayesian Framework for Impact Assessment and Resilience Planning

Natural gas pipeline failures pose escalating threats to environmental integrity and community safety, particularly through soil contamination, toxic dispersions, and combustion explosions. This study develops a dynamic risk assessment framework integrating Bayesian networks with regional disaster-bearing capacity to quantify cascading environmental impacts across pipeline degradation lifecycles, providing actionable solutions to optimize maintenance resource allocation. Our analysis of China's Jiliwen pipeline reveals: (1) Combustion explosion probability surges 177% over 10-year corrosion cycles, correlating with intensified ecosystem vulnerability; (2) Slope-dependent F-N curves (n=1–2) establish new thresholds for societal risk acceptance in densely populated areas; (3) Mandatory Level 5 disaster resilience upgrades reduce environmental contamination risks by 92% in high-risk urban corridors. Mitigation strategies including real-time drone monitoring and corrosion control are validated through case studies of historical accidents. This work provides an actionable paradigm for global pipeline safety regulations and industrial disaster preparedness and provides policymakers with metrics to achieve UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 9 and 12) in energy infrastructure management.