Adaptive capacity and resilience as drivers of household support for a carbon-neutral waste levy in Batam City, Indonesia

This study investigates household willingness to support a proposed carbon-neutral waste governance levy of IDR 15,000/month in Batam City, Indonesia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted and analyzed using Importance–Performance Analysis (IPA), participation–resilience indices, and four binary response models consisting of two Probit and two Logit specifications. The IPA four-quadrant was applied to identify governance priorities and gaps. The IPA results revealed that low-carbon waste infrastructure capacity (p < 0.001), strength of governance networks (p < 0.001), and community willingness to engage in net-zero waste practices (p < 0.001) were all positioned in the “Transformation Hotspot” quadrant, indicating areas of high importance but low performance that require urgent policy attention. In contrast, indicators such as data-driven monitoring and integration of waste into coastal strategies appeared in the “Efficiency Rebalance Zone,” while none were classified as “Resilience Anchors,” underscoring the absence of well-performing, high-priority strengths within Batam's governance system. Regression analysis further showed that education (p < 0.01), income (p < 0.10), marital status (p < 0.10), and domicile (p < 0.05) significantly influenced willingness to pay, while age was not significant (p > 0.10). Governance indices had stronger effects: in the IPA-based models, both adaptive capacity (p < 0.001) and resilience (p < 0.001) were significant, while in the PR-based models, adaptive capacity (p < 0.05) and resilience (p < 0.001 in Probit; p < 0.01 in Logit) remained decisive. Model fit statistics confirmed that PR-based models provided superior explanatory power. These findings demonstrate that governance weaknesses concentrated in the Transformation Hotspot quadrant, together with community resilience gaps, must be prioritized to build stronger household support for carbon-neutral waste strategies in Batam. • Integrates adaptive capacity and resilience into household support for waste levy • Applies Importance–Performance Analysis to identify governance “hotspot” gaps • Demonstrates governance indices outperform sociodemographics in predicting WTP • Shows performance resilience models provide stronger explanatory power than IPA • Offers policy insights to strengthen low-carbon, community-based waste governance