Urban eco-environmental quality mapping in Mumbai: An integrated remote sensing and GIS approach

Particularly in fast-growing metropolitan areas like Mumbai, the deterioration of urban ecological environmental quality (EEQ) seriously jeopardizes sustainable development. Using Remote Sensing (RS), Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and advanced modelling approaches, this research offers an integrated geospatial solution to evaluate, assess, and predict EEQ trends in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) from 2000 to 2043. Constructed a Remote Sensing-based Ecological Index (RSEI) using four fundamental ecological indicators: Land Surface Temperature (LST), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Normalized Difference Built-up and Soil Index (NDBSI), and Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI). The weights and synthesis of the indicators into a composite EEQ index were assigned using principal component analysis (PCA). With the "Very Poor" EEQ zone rising from 10.92% in 2000 to 31.21% in 2023, the results show a clear decline in ecological quality. Forecasts based on a Cellular Automaton-Markov Chain (CA-MC) model indicate that this deterioration will get more severe; the "Very Poor" zone is expected to cover 45.78% of the area by 2043. Strong clustering of deteriorated zones was confirmed by spatial autocorrelation analysis applying Moran's I, thereby reflecting higher anthropogenic stresses. An Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.748 from model validation using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis indicates modest prediction accuracy. So, the integration of geospatial analytics with ecological indicators, including RSEI and CA-Markov modeling, equips decision-makers with a predictive and spatially explicit framework for monitoring ecological change and simulating future degradation scenarios. This approach offers a valuable planning tool to support evidence-based land-use regulation, promote environmental resilience, and incorporate adaptive strategies into the Development Plan 2034 and related urban policy initiatives. Future efforts should institutionalize these methods in municipal planning processes, enabling a proactive and data-driven response to sustain ecological health amid continued urban expansion. • Ecological Environmental Quality (EEQ) declined sharply in Mumbai between 2000 and 23 due to rapid urban growth. • PCA showed urbanization as the main driver of environmental degradation. • EEQ indicators reveal rising heat, reduced greenery, and surface moisture loss. • CA-Markov predicts 45.78% of Mumbai will be in 'very poor' EEQ by 2043. • Policy reforms, green infrastructure, and planning are critical for EEQ recovery.