Trust in federal statistical agencies and vaccine uptake among U.S. adults

Background In the United States (US), COVID-19 vaccination saved 3.2 million lives from 2020 to 2023, yet vaccine uptake remains a public health challenge. Examining the administration of COVID-19 and flu vaccines provides an opportunity to understand the factors influencing this uptake. This study quantified the association between trust in federal statistical agencies and vaccine uptake among US adults. Methods Repeated cross-sectional data were obtained from the Household Pulse Survey. COVID-19 and flu vaccine uptake were based on self-reported vaccination status since August 2024. Independent variables of interest were (1) trust in federal statistics, (2) confidence in the US Census Bureau, and (3) confidence in US statistical agencies. Weighted logistic regression quantified the association between trust measures and non-vaccine uptake, adjusting for sociodemographic factors. Results Compared to those who trusted federal statistics, individuals who did not trust federal statistics had significantly higher odds of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.61, 95% CI: 2.05–3.32) and flu vaccine hesitancy (aOR: 1.87, 95% CI: 1.58–2.21). Similarly, individuals with very little confidence in the U.S. Census Bureau (COVID-19: aOR: 2.16, 95% CI: 1.16–4.02; flu: aOR: 2.67, 95% CI: 1.74–4.10) or U.S. statistical agencies (COVID-19: aOR: 2.28, 95% CI: 1.52–3.43; flu: aOR: 1.86, 95% CI: 1.35–2.57) exhibited a greater likelihood of vaccine hesitancy. Conclusion Distrust in federal statistical agencies is associated with non-vaccine uptake for COVID-19 and flu, underscoring the critical role of institutional trust. Enhancing public trust in statistical agencies and further research into trust’s impact on vaccine decisions are needed.