Incidence rates of twelve chronic diseases/conditions in US adults: findings from a population-based study

Background: There are no contemporary studies simultaneously examining the incidence of multiple chronic diseases/conditions in US adults. We estimated one-year incidence rates for 12 chronic diseases/conditions with high public burden. Methods: Data were from the nationally representative National Health Interview Survey 2019-2020 Longitudinal Cohort (N = 10,415). We assessed incidence rates for anxiety, arthritis, asthma, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic pain, coronary heart disease (CHD), depression, diabetes, high cholesterol, hypertension, and obesity. We calculated overall and sex-specific age-standardized incidence rates per 1000 person-years (PY) and examined associations with baseline age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, insurance, and smoking status. Findings: In the sample, 51.7% ([95% CI: 50.3-53.1]; N = 5624, representing 129.7 million adults) were female, 20.5% ([95% CI: 20-22.2]; N = 3405, representing 21.1 million adults) were aged 65+ years, 63.2% ([95% CI: 60.9-65.4]; N = 7495, representing 158.5 million adults) were Non-Hispanic White, 16.5% ([95% CI: 14.7-18.4]; N = 1153, representing 41.5 million adults) were Hispanic/Latino, 28.8% ([95% CI: 27.4-30.2]; N = 4228, representing 72.3 million adults) graduated college, and 72.4 ([95% CI: 70.8-73.9]; N = 7287, representing 167.0 million adults) had private health insurance. One-year incidence rates were lowest for diabetes, COPD and CHD: 13.8/1000 PY (95% CI: 10.8-16.8), 14.4/1000 PY (95% CI: 11.8-17.0), and 14.7/1000 PY (95% CI: 12.7-17.0), respectively. The highest rates were observed for high cholesterol and chronic pain, 85.7/1000 PY (95% CI: 79.4-91.9) and 85.3/1000 PY (95% CI: 78.7-92.0), respectively, while all other rates were between these extremes. Females had higher rates of anxiety (69.6 [95% CI: 60.5-75.7] vs 36.4 [95% CI: 29.8-43.1]) and depression (63.7 [95% CI: 55.1-72.3] vs 34.5 [95% CI: 28.4-40.7]), while males had higher rates of hypertension (77.3 [95% CI: 72.3-82.3] vs 56.5 [95% CI: 48.7-64.3]). Incidence-related risk factors differed across diseases/conditions, with age the most consistent predictor. Interpretation: This comprehensive assessment documented striking variation in chronic disease/condition incidence. The findings provide essential evidence for prioritizing and coordinating prevention initiatives across the chronic disease/condition spectrum. Funding: US National Institutes of Health.