Seeing green, staying longer? A causal analysis of visual green exposure and urban park engagement using mobility and panoramas data

Urban green spaces are vital components of city landscapes, yet the role of visible greenery in promoting park use remains poorly understood due to limitations of static, correlational evidence. This study provides quasi-experimental evidence linking visual green exposure (VGE) to urban park engagement, specifically visit duration and physical activity intensity, using large-scale human mobility data and panoramic imagery across Tokyo’s 23 special wards. Employing propensity score matching (PSM), inverse probability weighting (IPW), and overlap weighting (OW), the analysis reveals that park visits with average VGE exceeding 30% are result in 3.36 min longer stays and 116.95 m additional walking distance relative to lower-exposure visits. However, these effects exhibit systematic spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Spatially, urban density mediates VGE’s impact, high VGE boosts engagement in dense city centers but shortens walking distance in peri -urban areas. Temporally, the positive influence of VGE on stat duration is most pronounced on weekends and during morning to midday hours, while declines in evenings. Seasonally, spring and fall amplify the influence of VGE’s on physical activity, while winter shows minimal effects despite year-round accessibility. These findings demonstrate VGE is influential yet context-dependent driver of park usage. By translating visibility into quantifiable engagement metrics, this study offers actionable guidance for planners, including optimized canopy placement and strategic vegetation configuration, to enhance public interaction with nature in dense urban settings.