Scenario-based stochastic techno-economic assessment of energy-efficient spectrum selective greenhouses

Agricultural production in arid climates faces challenges due to harsh conditions, requiring cooling technologies to support crop growth. Mechanically active cooling systems, such as heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning, are effective but energy-intensive, leading to high costs. This study proposes using spectrum-selective fluids in greenhouse roofs to supplement the cooling system by blocking near-infrared radiation while allowing photosynthetic active radiation to pass. This approach decreases cooling demand but also reduces yield, presenting a trade-off in greenhouse performance. A stochastic techno-economic analysis was conducted using an integrated input-yield model with historical solar irradiance and temperature data. Scenarios were generated and reduced using k-means clustering. Monte Carlo simulations determined the expected net present value, minimum selling price, and discounted payback period under uncertainties. Results demonstrated that the ATO-WO 3 greenhouse had a 5.87% and 11.55% lower expected tomato yield than the water and conventional greenhouses, but better techno-economic indicators, with an expected net present value of $1465.07 m -2 , a minimum selling price of $2.25 kg -1 , and a depreciated payback period of 8.22 years. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify the impact of various input variables on the techno-economic indicators.