Modelling the contribution of biofuels and bioenergy to the EU's sustainable energy transition using the POTEnCIA model

The transition to a sustainable energy system is a cornerstone of the European Union's (EU) strategy to mitigate climate change and achieve the ambitious goals set out in the European Green Deal, setting the EU on a trajectory towards carbon neutrality by 2050. Central to this transition is the need to understand the complex dynamics of biofuels and bioenergy within the EU's energy mix. This article presents a comprehensive modelling approach using POTEnCIA (Policy Oriented Tool for Energy and Climate Change Impact Assessment), a hybrid partial equilibrium model developed by the Joint Research Centre. POTEnCIA assesses EU energy pathways by integrating sectoral supply–demand, techno-economic data, and biomass sustainability constraints. It evaluates biofuel and bioenergy demand, GHG impacts, and resource competition while applying EU targets and eligibility rules, producing long-term scenarios. The present analysis shows that the consumption of biofuels in the EU increases from around 24 Mtoe in 2025 to 81 Mtoe in 2050, with advanced biofuels production also increasing progressively. The production of biofuels from food and feed crops provides progressively minor contributions, while the consumption of advanced biokerosene in the aviation sector and biomethanol in the maritime sector, particularly post-2030, significantly increases. The use of bioenergy for electricity and heat generation is anticipated to remain significant, and the role of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage becomes increasingly important by 2050. Overall, the study provides a detailed scenario to inform future EU policy, infrastructure needs, and the strategic deployment of sustainable biomass resources.