Future energy demands and mix optimization under changing climate and socioeconomic scenarios

Rising electricity demand, driven by economic growth, population increase, and cooling requirements, poses a critical challenge that demands urgent, climate-resilient, and sustainable long-term energy planning. This study develops a novel framework that couples high‑resolution RCP‑based climate projections, SSP socio‑economic pathways, GIS land‑suitability mapping, and a multi‑objective optimization model to assess future demand and identify an optimal national energy mix. Compared to 2022, Qatar’s maximum electricity demand is projected to increase by 35% under RCP 4.5-SSP2 and by 75% under RCP 8.5-SSP5 by 2070. GIS-based assessments show that Qatar possesses substantially higher land suitability for solar PV than for wind energy under future climate and urbanization scenarios. The average wind speed is expected to decline by 6.8% compared to baseline values, reducing the long-term technical and economic potential of wind power. In contrast, solar PV emerges as the most sustainable and economically viable renewable energy option, benefiting from high irradiance, stable output during peak summer demand, and extensive deployment area. Optimization results indicate that a balanced energy mix composed of 69% natural gas and 31% solar PV achieves a high resilience index while contributing to moderate sustainability. Meanwhile, a sustainability-focused scenario increases the share of solar PV to 51%, reducing emissions and cost but yielding a lower resilience score. Importantly, integrating large shares of renewables, particularly without energy storage, requires oversizing total system capacity by over 70% in some scenarios to maintain reliability. The findings offer policymakers a robust, scenario-driven foundation for designing a secure, climate-resilient, and sustainable energy strategy aligned with Qatar’s long-term development goals.