Inverse uncertainty quantification in nuclear thermal–hydraulics: A Bootstrap–ARIMA approach
Abstract
This paper presents a state-of-the-art Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (IUQ) methodology based on Bootstrap resampling and ARIMA fitting. The method is applied to the study of critical flow under the experimental conditions of the Marviken facility, using TRACE system code. Results show that the approach captures system variability without relying on surrogate models, therefore reducing drastically the computational cost. At the same time, the findings emphasize the need to invest in improving the physical representation of computational modules to enhance the reliability of uncertainty quantification in nuclear safety analysis.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Nuclear Engineering Thermal-Hydraulics
Nuclear reactor physics and engineering
Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Nuclear Engineering and Design
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Volume
- 451
- Pages
- 114842–114842
- Publication date
- 17 February 2026
- Language
- EN