Occupational aspiration and mathematics performance: A cross-national multilevel analysis of PISA 2022

Future-oriented mindset plays a pivotal role in shaping adolescents' educational trajectories and socio-economic outcomes. Students who envision high-status careers tend to engage more in school activities and exhibit stronger intrinsic motivation to master challenging subjects like mathematics. However, the association between expected occupational status and educational outcomes has seldom been investigated in a global context. Using PISA 2022 data from 288,299 15-year-old students across 62 countries/economies, this study examined whether academic engagement statistically accounted for the association between expected occupational status and mathematics performance, and whether these associations varied across national cultural contexts. Multilevel analyses showed that occupational aspiration was positively associated with mathematics performance and that this association was partly accounted for by academic engagement. The association between academic engagement and mathematics performance was stronger in high-flexibility countries, and the direct association between occupational aspiration and mathematics performance was stronger in high-flexibility and high-individualism countries. These findings have implications for global education policy, particularly in designing programs that better support aspiration-actualization pathways for youth across diverse socio-cultural contexts.