Mapping housing vulnerability to hailstorms in Bangladesh: A decision-support approach for disaster risk reduction

Hailstorms represent a recurrent yet underexamined climate hazard across South Asia, with disproportionate consequences for structurally fragile housing in socioeconomically deprived communities. In Bangladesh's Rangpur Division, the convergence of high hailstorm frequency, near-ubiquitous sub-standard housing, and entrenched poverty creates compounded vulnerability that existing disaster risk frameworks have not spatially resolved at actionable resolution. This study constructs the first upazila-level Hailstorm Vulnerability Index (HVI) by integrating the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) across three IPCC-aligned components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, operationalized through fifteen indicators derived from meteorological records, satellite imagery, and census data. Spatial analysis identifies a pronounced north-to-south vulnerability gradient, with Very High vulnerability zones (1713.27 km 2 ; 10.8% of the division) concentrated in Panchagarh, Thakurgaon, Nilphamari, and Lalmonirhat, where hailstorm frequency reaches 65.57 to 72.00 events over 30 years, sub-standard housing constitutes up to 96.8% of the dwelling stock, and poverty rates range from 65.14% to 79.79%. An inverse spatial relationship between exposure and adaptive capacity amplifies risk where coping capacity is most constrained. ROC-AUC validation yields an AUC of 0.957, confirming discriminative reliability. The resulting HVI provides a transferable decision-support tool for targeting climate-resilient housing investment aligned with Sendai Framework priorities.