Declining cigarette sales and shifts in the US cigarette marketplace from 2016 to 2024: Analysis of market scanner sales data in US convenience stores

Objective: Changing cigarette sales trends can indicate shifts in tobacco marketing, consumer preferences, and smoker demographics. This study examines trends in US convenience store sales for cigarettes (2016-2024) by brand tier, flavor, and leading brands. Methods: Using Nielsen market scanner cigarette data (2016-2024) for US convenience stores, annual market shares and sales trends for each brand tier (premium, value, deep-discount), flavor (menthol, non-menthol), and leading brands were determined. Sales trends were assessed using Joinpoint for average annual percentage changes (AAPCs-primary outcome), with annual percent changes (APCs) describing shorter-term trends. Results: Sales declined from 9.23 to 5.61 billion packs from 2016 to 2024 (AAPC: -5.82% [95% CI: -6.40%, -5.21%]). Premium cigarettes declined more slowly between 2016 and 2021 (APC: -4.22% [95% CI: -5.47%, -1.93%]) than 2021 to 2024 (APC: -10.78% [95% CI: -15.38%, -8.29%]). Value cigarettes declined steadily (AAPC: -7.54%, [95% CI: -8.56%, -6.49%]). Deep-discount cigarettes were the only segment to grow (AAPC: 5.56% [95% CI: 3.81%, 7.39%]) and decrease in price. Non-menthol cigarettes declined steadily (AAPC: -4.97% [95% CI: -5.43%, -4.51%]). Menthol cigarettes declined slowly between 2016 and 2021 (APC: -2.65% [95% CI: -3.90%, -1.29%]) before rapidly declining (2021-2024 APC: -14.83% [95% CI: -16.94%, -12.13%]). Conclusion: Research assessing potential impacts of the growing deep-discount segment on smoking patterns and health disparities, as well as continued monitoring of menthol cigarettes, is needed.