Impact of cold chain temperature and relative humidity variability on cherry tomato shelf life: A predictive modeling approach

Food waste is a major global issue, with fruit and vegetables accounting for a large proportion of postharvest losses. This study quantifies the impact of dynamic temperature and relative humidity (RH) conditions on postharvest quality and shelf life of cherry tomatoes. Key quality attributes (weight loss, decay, color, firmness, pH, and total soluble solids) were monitored under 14 storage scenarios simulating real cold-chain conditions: four constant temperatures (5, 8, 15, and 22 °C), eight variable temperatures, and two transportation scenarios using a controlled climate chamber. From continuous sensor records, interpretable exposure and fluctuation indicators for temperature and RH were derived and, combined with time, they were used as predictors in parsimonious multiple linear regression models, including nonlinear transformations. Our results demonstrated that higher temperatures and larger temperature/RH fluctuations accelerate quality deterioration, thus decreasing shelf life, and highlighted cumulative, irreversible quality losses driven by the dynamics of environmental conditions. A model linking softening to weight loss was also presented. The proposed indicator-based predictive framework enables estimation of quality degradation from recorded environmental histories, facilitating early identification of at-risk batches and optimizing distribution strategies to reduce food waste in the cold chain.