Risk-Aware System Planning in Offer Phases based on Integrated Variation Analysis and Risk Assessment

Companies developing complex, often customer-specific systems face the challenge of committing to costs and technical feasibility very early in the offer phase, when requirements are incomplete and uncertainties are high. This paper introduces a method that integrates variation analysis with a lightweight, function-based risk assessment to support robust system planning at offer stage. Building on a structured functional analysis, required changes are identified relative to reference solutions and classified using an extended typology of variations. Uncertainties are then assessed across three dimensions - requirements clarity, project execution quality, and technical feasibility - resulting in risk indices and targeted preventive measures. The method was implemented as an Excel-based tool and evaluated in two pilot projects with an industrial partner. Results indicate improved cross-disciplinary collaboration, more systematic identification of risks, and better reuse of reference solutions within the offer phase.